Fuzzy Little Things I Find Interesting

Why Bidenomics Gets No Love From Voters – WSJ:

That record, though, is overshadowed by the record of his first months in office, when his American Rescue Plan pumped $1.9 trillion of demand into a supply-constrained economy. The result was the tightest job market in memory and a surge in inflation that still hangs over Biden’s approval ratings and his prospects for re-election.

It’s why the Fed is having a hard time bringing inflation within the 2% inflation target: because the government is trying to do two things at the same time. It’s trying to spend more money–which floods the market with currency. And it’s trying to restrict the supply of money in the economy with higher interest rates.

Pulling and pushing at the same time is utterly unhelpful.

And worse: the “American Rescue Plan” is not a one-shot stimulus; it’s spending over time. So the government will continue to pull for a while, even as the Fed raises interest rates more–with the side effect of crashing smaller banks as bond values plummet.

Weekend Update #34 – by Phillips P. OBrien:

However here is when things get really weird and a little confusing—and call into question the whole purpose of the mutiny. As the convoy was approaching Moscow it was announced that Prigozhin and Putin has struck a bargain (mediated by the Belarusian strongman Aleksander Lukashenko). The Wagner column seemed to turn instantly around and head back to base. In Rostov Wagner forces packed up and left and by the end of the evening it was stated that Prigozhin was entering a form of exile and was on his way to Belarus. It was quite a remarkable turn of events in a very short period of time—which begs the questions why did Prigozhin do it?

It might be that Prigozhin had actually succeeded too well during the day and was on the point of threatening the whole Russian state—a form of catastrophic success as it were. If what he really wanted to protect his position against the military, humiliate Shoigu and Gerasimov, and protect his money and authority, then his main would have been to get Putin’s recognition/attention not to tear down the whole edifice of the Russian state.

…

So what might have been a show of power by Prigozhin to protect Wagner and himself, ended up threatening the whole Russian state, and in the end a hasty deal was struck—the contours of which still need to be worked out. However neither Prigozhin or Putin are probably sleeping soundly these days.

It was weird to me that Prigozhin withdrew just as he was achieving incredibly rapid success in Russia.

But then, given that Prigozhin undoubtedly saw him as friends with Putin, and undoubtedly saw himself as trying to protect the Russian state–his amazing success was, as the phrase goes, “catastrophic.”

Thus, facing the real possibility that, rather than ousting a few leaders in the military, he was about to overthrow the entire government–Prigozhin retreated, not wanting to suddenly find himself crowned “King” without the planning, logistics, or infrastructure necessary to hold the crown.

Interstate 95 reopens less than two weeks after deadly collapse in Philadelphia | AP News:

President Joe Biden joined Shapiro on a helicopter tour of the site a little more than a week after the collapse and called the first-term governor, a fellow Democrat, on Friday. In a statement, Biden said he was “proud of the hard-working men and women on site who put their heads down, stayed at it, and got I-95 reopened in record time.”

With rain threatening to delay the reopening, a truck-mounted jet dryer normally used to keep moisture off the track at Pocono Raceway was brought in to keep the fresh asphalt dry enough for lines to be painted.

The 24-hour construction work was live-streamed, drawing thousands of viewers online.

The reason why we don’t build things this quickly all the time is because of planning, not because we can’t actually make things. That is, the bureaucracy of planning tends to take years, and after taking years there is no incentive for the builders to bust their butts to make the things afterwards.

I’m not arguing against the bureaucracy; sometimes you need to take a long ‘think’ about what you’re doing, to make sure you’re not doing something stupid. And sometimes the long ‘think’ worries about the interests of the people who are near the project: we tend not to displace millions of people in this country without at least acknowledging their concerns as we see routinely in China.

But that bureaucracy exists, and it’s why we can’t build things quickly in general.

In the analysis of Prigozhin uprising against Putin’s military leadership, don’t forget they were long-time friends. It’s why Wagner was allowed to gain as much power as it did:

Yevgeny Prigozhin: From Putin’s chef to rebel in chief

Upon his release from jail, Prigozhin set up a chain of stalls selling hot dogs in St Petersburg. Business went well and within a few years, in the lawless 1990s, Prigozhin was able to open expensive restaurants in the city.

It was there that he began mixing with the high and mighty of St Petersburg and then Russia. One of his restaurants, called New Island, was a boat sailing up and down the Neva River. Vladimir Putin liked it so much that – after becoming president – he started taking his foreign guests there. And that is most likely how the two first met.

The problem with being a strong-arm authoritarian dictator is that you don’t have a lot of trusted friends or comrades. And sometimes you wind up trusting people to do things not because they’re especially qualified, but because you need someone you can trust has your back.

I mean, look at President Trump’s administration: a lot of spots were held by close friends and family, in part because Trump sought help from the people he trusted the most, rather than tried to play well with outsiders. It’s one reason why Trump had so many problems in Washington D.C.: you need to play well with the other kids if you’re going to be accepted on the school playground.

So with Prigozhin’s uprising, he probably thought he had two things: (a) the support of Putin as a close personal friend (forgetting the other people selected to run parts of Putin’s government were probably similarly selected: from close friends regardless of competence–meaning Prigozhin was not particularly special), and (b) the support of other officials within the Russian Government. Officials who, given Putin’s ex-KGB past, knew which side one’s bread is buttered on. (Meaning privately they may have supported Prigozhin–but given the number of people who fell out of windows over the past year they may have been reluctant to actually support an actual uprising. Though expect a few of them to fall out of windows anyways; the walls do have ears in Russia.)

It’s probably why the quick retreat after gaining so much ground. My guess: Prigozhin probably thought he was doing Putin a favor–and thought he was strengthening Putin’s hand.

And when he discovered how wrong he was, he beat a hasty retreat to Belarus.

Where a broken window awaits him.

Wagner Rebellion in Russia Undercuts Putin:

Honestly, I think that the chances of Prigozhin staying alive are very slim. The Russian authorities made clear he must be destroyed. So it’s only a question of the price and the time. But they will try to find any possible way to end this.

Russian authorities launch criminal probe into Wagner Group over threats to oust defense minister | AP News:

Authorities in Russia launched a criminal probe Friday against the owner of the Wagner Group military contractor over his alleged threats to oust Russia’s defense minister.

The announcement follows a statement from owner Yevgeny Prigozhin accusing Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of ordering a rocket strike on Wagner’s field camps in the Ukraine where its soldier are fighting on behalf of Russia against Ukranian forces.

Prigozhin said that his troops would now move to punish Shoigu and urged the army not to offer resistance. Prigozhin declared that “this is not an armed rebellion, but a march of justice.”

The Russian Defense Ministry rejected Prigozhin’s claim and the National Anti-Terrorism Committee, the country’s top counter-terrorism structure, said it opened a criminal inquiry on charges of making calls for a military coup.

A Chatbot That Won’t Take Bribes for Giving Advice Is a Hit in India:

Vijayalakshmi, who goes by a single name as is common in southern India, voiced a question to a bot in her native Kannada language on education scholarships. Moments later, a human-like voice responded to explain the government aid available to her 15-year-old son.

While the sea change that was ushered in by OpenAI’s release of ChatGPT in November has brought to the fore concerns about AI’s role in the spread of disinformation and the potential loss of jobs, the tests in Bangalore and in Mewat in northern India show it’s also a tool that can aid social equality. The tech can assist in professional communications, empower people who don’t have language skills and help those who have a disability, such as users of BeMyEyes, a personal assistant for the visually impaired.

For first time, US task force recommends screening adults for anxiety disorders | CNN:

Adults ages 19 to 64 in the United States should be screened for anxiety disorders, according to a new recommendation from the US Preventive Services Task Force released Tuesday.

The final recommendation, published in the medical journal JAMA, marks the first time the USPSTF has made a final recommendation on screening for anxiety disorders in adults, including those who are pregnant and postpartum. The task force found “insufficient evidence” to screen for anxiety in older adults.

To be honest, I have to wonder how much of this anxiety was driven by COVID-19 lockdowns, by governments convincing social media platforms to censor certain ideas (such as censoring media outlets reporting on Hunter Biden’s crimes), and by the rise of social media itself.

WSJ: Wall Street Sours on America’s Downtowns

Downtowns have been a mother lode for American cities over the years, providing billions of dollars in tax revenue along with their distinctive skylines. In turn, investors who bet on downtown office towers, or on the trains and buses delivering workers to them, could generally trust they held a winning hand.

Now, with white-collar workers spending more time in their home offices, a phenomenon that shows few signs of ending, investments linked to downtowns are trading at falling prices in volatile markets.

“You could see this as a slow-motion change or as the beginning of a slow-moving train wreck,” said Richard Ciccarone, president emeritus of Merritt Research Services, a municipal credit-analysis firm. “I hope it’s not a train wreck, but it could be.”

This is all related to the pandemic’s shutdown orders–and it was something I predicted would happen elsewhere.

After all, do the same thing for a month and it becomes a habit. And we’ve been working at home for three years now. After years, it’s not a habit; it’s a lifestyle.

Of course it doesn’t help that we’ve constantly demonized proximity to strangers as a vector for a deadly disease; who wants to sit on a bus or in a subway or work in an office cubical next to a bunch of people, where COVID-19 can sweep through like wildfire?

You can’t catch COVID-19 through Zoom.

It’s also quite likely a lot of those workers will never return to the office because they no longer live in that city. Telecommuting means you can move out to the suburbs, or even to a different state, or even to a different country–and no-one has to be the wiser. And to me, the biggest tell during the pandemic was an interview with someone who was arguing that people should go back to work after the pandemic was over–who admitted that he moved out of New York City and out to the countryside several states away.

Dude; if the experts arguing we should return back to the office no longer live in the same state as their own offices, then why should we expect everyone else to just fall in line?

So here we are; lines of credit running out, buildings being let go and returned back to the banks–banks who themselves are having liquidity problems as bond holdings plummet in value, as the Fed fights inflation that we were assured was just “temporary” by all the experts.

Meanwhile we still see supply chain shortages as in-demand industries fail to find workers.

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Frankly, I’m going with “train wreck.”

And to be honest, when the pandemic began in 2020, I didn’t think things would get so bad, because I believed, quite honestly, the property owners of these massive buildings would push back at some of the more egregious pandemic restrictions in order to protect the value of their holdings. (For example, I expected a lot of property owners to seek greater use of their outdoor venues, to keep foot traffic high. After all, contact tracing evidence from Asia demonstrated outdoor venues were safe, even at the height of the pandemic.)

But they didn’t push back; they succumbed to the worse impulses of the ‘panic and lockdown’ crowds, they didn’t even push to reopen after vaccinations were widely available–again, despite solid evidence vaccination actually helped.

And so now property values have collapsed.

And to be honest, I strongly believe they should not be bailed out. Nor should the cities whose tax revenues are causing them to suffer.

Instead, they should be allowed to go bankrupt.

Hunter Biden to plead guilty to federal tax charges, strikes deal on gun charge | CNN Politics:

Hunter Biden will plead guilty to two tax misdemeanors and struck a deal with federal prosecutors regarding a felony gun charge, the Justice Department said Tuesday in court filings.

Trader Joe’s near me: There’s a good chance all the employees there are having sex.:

Things changed after he started working at Trader Joe’s. The place just seemed alive—everyone was friendly, the store was small enough for friendships to form, and the endearingly tacky Hawaiian shirts and punny foodstuffs made it seem fun. More importantly: Everyone, it seemed, was banging each other.

Referring to Trader Joe’s as the “single most incestuous company [he] ever worked for,” he described his first few months there as a sort of carnal “mayhem.” “We worked late shifts, and everyone lived nearby,” explained Jeremy, who spent 10 years at a California Trader Joe’s. “I noticed it with the staff at first, but it was even with the managers. They’d make jokes about it.

I get the feeling TJ’s is going to be able to hire a lot of young people at lower wages than their competitors, thanks to this story.