In the analysis of Prigozhin uprising against Putin’s military leadership, don’t forget they were long-time friends. It’s why Wagner was allowed to gain as much power as it did:
Yevgeny Prigozhin: From Putin’s chef to rebel in chief
Upon his release from jail, Prigozhin set up a chain of stalls selling hot dogs in St Petersburg. Business went well and within a few years, in the lawless 1990s, Prigozhin was able to open expensive restaurants in the city.
It was there that he began mixing with the high and mighty of St Petersburg and then Russia. One of his restaurants, called New Island, was a boat sailing up and down the Neva River. Vladimir Putin liked it so much that – after becoming president – he started taking his foreign guests there. And that is most likely how the two first met.
The problem with being a strong-arm authoritarian dictator is that you don’t have a lot of trusted friends or comrades. And sometimes you wind up trusting people to do things not because they’re especially qualified, but because you need someone you can trust has your back.
I mean, look at President Trump’s administration: a lot of spots were held by close friends and family, in part because Trump sought help from the people he trusted the most, rather than tried to play well with outsiders. It’s one reason why Trump had so many problems in Washington D.C.: you need to play well with the other kids if you’re going to be accepted on the school playground.
So with Prigozhin’s uprising, he probably thought he had two things: (a) the support of Putin as a close personal friend (forgetting the other people selected to run parts of Putin’s government were probably similarly selected: from close friends regardless of competence–meaning Prigozhin was not particularly special), and (b) the support of other officials within the Russian Government. Officials who, given Putin’s ex-KGB past, knew which side one’s bread is buttered on. (Meaning privately they may have supported Prigozhin–but given the number of people who fell out of windows over the past year they may have been reluctant to actually support an actual uprising. Though expect a few of them to fall out of windows anyways; the walls do have ears in Russia.)
It’s probably why the quick retreat after gaining so much ground. My guess: Prigozhin probably thought he was doing Putin a favor–and thought he was strengthening Putin’s hand.
And when he discovered how wrong he was, he beat a hasty retreat to Belarus.
Where a broken window awaits him.
Wagner Rebellion in Russia Undercuts Putin:
Honestly, I think that the chances of Prigozhin staying alive are very slim. The Russian authorities made clear he must be destroyed. So it’s only a question of the price and the time. But they will try to find any possible way to end this.