Weekend Update #34 – by Phillips P. OBrien:
However here is when things get really weird and a little confusing—and call into question the whole purpose of the mutiny. As the convoy was approaching Moscow it was announced that Prigozhin and Putin has struck a bargain (mediated by the Belarusian strongman Aleksander Lukashenko). The Wagner column seemed to turn instantly around and head back to base. In Rostov Wagner forces packed up and left and by the end of the evening it was stated that Prigozhin was entering a form of exile and was on his way to Belarus. It was quite a remarkable turn of events in a very short period of time—which begs the questions why did Prigozhin do it?
It might be that Prigozhin had actually succeeded too well during the day and was on the point of threatening the whole Russian state—a form of catastrophic success as it were. If what he really wanted to protect his position against the military, humiliate Shoigu and Gerasimov, and protect his money and authority, then his main would have been to get Putin’s recognition/attention not to tear down the whole edifice of the Russian state.
…
So what might have been a show of power by Prigozhin to protect Wagner and himself, ended up threatening the whole Russian state, and in the end a hasty deal was struck—the contours of which still need to be worked out. However neither Prigozhin or Putin are probably sleeping soundly these days.
It was weird to me that Prigozhin withdrew just as he was achieving incredibly rapid success in Russia.
But then, given that Prigozhin undoubtedly saw him as friends with Putin, and undoubtedly saw himself as trying to protect the Russian state–his amazing success was, as the phrase goes, “catastrophic.”
Thus, facing the real possibility that, rather than ousting a few leaders in the military, he was about to overthrow the entire government–Prigozhin retreated, not wanting to suddenly find himself crowned “King” without the planning, logistics, or infrastructure necessary to hold the crown.